New Rochelle, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

233
FXUS61 KOKX 190312
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1112 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Any isolated severe weather potential has ended. Gale warnings
have been allowed to expire.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dangerous rip currents expected at ocean beaches through
Friday.

2) After a mainly dry (perhaps an instability shower Sat and/or
Sun) and seasonably warm Fri-Sun, low pressure may bring a
period of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms next Monday into
Monday Night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
High rip current risk continues through Friday.

Breaking waves of 4 to 7 ft, from building southerly swells of
near 7 to 8 ft with 7 to 8 second period will continue dangerous
rip currents along the ocean beaches through this evening.

Winds will be westerly on Friday, but lingering 4-5ft@8sec S
swells, will bringing 3 to 6 ft breaking surf, highest for
eastern Li beaches. This should continue the high rip risk for
the LI beaches.


.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Global models continue in general agreement with a northern
stream upper low drifting from southern Ontario into southern
Quebec Mon into Tue. Meanwhile a PAC shortwave/vort train
ejects into the central Plains and works eastward towards the
region Monday into early Tuesday.

General agreement on resultant low pressure or a series of low
pressure waves developing east of the Rocky Mountains on Saturday
and tracking east along a stalled frontal boundary towards the
region Monday into Tuesday.

Still a good amount of timing/location spread with northern stream
low and PAC vorts, and possible convective error in the latter
features, which will affect the strength and timing of low
pressure/s. With that said, synoptic environment of moderate to
strong moisture convergence from a +2-4 STD llj lifting a nearly
2" PWAT, warm cloud and potentially weakly unstable airmass
over the region presents threat for a period of heavy rain and
embedded thunderstorms Monday into Monday Nigh. Ensemble
probabilities are signaling moderate ensemble probabilities of
>1" of rain in 24/hr, and low probabilities of 2" of rain in 24
hrs. Will have to monitor for an upward trend, with more
specificity and impacts details as we get into the high-res CAM
window this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front moves off to the east overnight.

VFR through the TAF period.

Gusts gradually come down through 06z with most terminals having
gusts end by 06-07z with sustained winds still around 10-13 kt at
most terminals. Gusts will return by 14z Friday morning peaking at
around 20-25kt mainly out of the west through Friday afternoon with
gusts likely holding on through Friday evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may hold on longer than indicated by TAFs during the overnight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night: VFR. W wind gusts 20-25 kt early, with gusts
eventually ending late.

Saturday: VFR. WNW-NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Sunday: VFR.

Monday: MVFR or lower with rain. Slight chance of thunderstorms.
S gusts 20 kt near the coast.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds shift to more W overnight and fall below SCA thresholds
on all waters. Residual high waves on the ocean will allow the
SCA to continue there through at least the day on Friday,
gradually falling below Friday Night.

Marginal SCA gusts likely for nearshore waters on Friday, which
may necessitate an SCA. SCA conditions remain possible for all
waters Friday night into Saturday

Low pressure may affect the waters on Monday, with SCA
conditions possible.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for NYZ075-080-
     081-178-179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353-
     355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...NV